Amazon’s first day is over. Analysts weigh on the results.
Nature abhors a vacuum, as do Amazon analysts on Wall Street.
(ticker: AMZN) provided its usual no-news conclusion to its annual two-day Prime Day shopping event on Wednesday. The announcement was almost entirely lacking in concrete data, but the street intervened in the breach. Estimates on how the company has varied considerably, but the consensus is that the event was neither a disappointment nor a blowout that will change the outlook for the June quarter.
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak estimated Prime Day’s revenue to be $ 3.8 billion, up 7%, with a gross merchandise value of $ 6.8 billion, up 9%. He said the results were in line with expectations and did not change his compensation model. He repeated his overweight rating on the stock with a target of $ 4,500 for the price.
Amazon shares were down 0.4% to $ 3,489.50 on Thursday morning, while the
was 0.9% higher.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney takes a slightly more optimistic view. He estimated $ 7.7 billion in GMV, with $ 4.5 billion in revenue for the two-day period, 20% more than his estimate of Prime Day revenue from the previous year. “We would describe these results as being within reasonable expectations and not indicative of a significant rise or fall in second quarter guidance or Street’s estimates,” Mahaney wrote in a research note.
Mahaney said the only useful disclosure was that Amazon had sold more than 250 million items. The company didn’t provide a unit number last year, but in 2019 Amazon estimated the total to be over 175 million. As Mahaney wrote, that means 21% annualized growth in items sold, which he called “very impressive for a company of this size.” Mahaney maintained his outperformance rating and price target of $ 4,500.
Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion was even more optimistic. It estimated Prime Day GMV at $ 10.9 billion, of which around $ 4 billion was from third-party sales, for estimated revenue of $ 7.5 billion. It calculates that Amazon sold a total of 259 million items at an average price of $ 42. Champion retained an overweight rating on the stock, with a target price of $ 4,000.
BofA Global Research analyst Justin Post estimated Prime Day GMV to be $ 9.6 billion, up about 7% from a year ago, with revenue estimated at $ 5.6 billion and $ 4 billion for third parties. Post maintained a buy rating and a target price of $ 4,360 on the stock.
Amazon’s Prime Day press release this year was around 1,400 words, down from 1,700 words last year, he noted.
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